Election outcomes indicate that the GOP will be severely disadvantaged on abortion by 2024.

Election outcomes indicate that the GOP will be severely disadvantaged on abortion by 2024.

Results in Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, and other states demonstrate that, even in 2024, this issue will continue to be a political advantage for Democrats and a serious weakness for Republicans.

Nov. 8, 2023, 8 a.m. Eastern Time

Through Adam Edelman

At the polls, abortion rights continue to gain ground, and on Tuesday, they will gain even more ground.

Almost 17 months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, candidates and ballot initiatives supporting abortion rights were still riding high in a number of states with wildly divergent political landscapes. 

Democrats celebrate series of wins in Tuesday’s election night

One year after Republicans triumphed in the midterm elections, Ohio saw a double-digit victory for the state constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights. Democratic governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshear, won reelection after emphasizing his support for abortion rights throughout his campaign in the staunchly conservative state. Democrats also maintained their majority in the state Senate and took control of the state House in Virginia, a significant setback for Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who had made a 15-week abortion ban the centerpiece of his campaign to assist the GOP in seizing total control of government in a state that has shifted toward blue over the past ten years.

Political strategists from both major parties said the results are more proof that, come 2024, abortion rights will continue to be a significant political force for Democrats and a weakness for Republicans nationwide. 

Republican strategist Alex Conant stated that Democrats "have a message on abortion that's more salient than Republicans'." Republicans must also devise a strategy for discussing abortion that will win over moderate independent voters.

According to Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson, it's not "a question of Republicans finding a new slogan, retooling their message, or trying to sell people on something that people don’t want."

"After Roe was overturned, we have the 2022 midterm elections, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, the other ballot measures, Kansas, and tonight's results," Ferguson continued, listing the accomplishments of proponents of abortion rights. "This is not a status quo referendum of any kind. This demonstrates that people in purple states like Virginia, red states like Kentucky, and everywhere in between are concerned about the effects of radicalism."Whether abortion rights were specifically on the ballot in a red state (Ohio), a focal point of the Democratic candidate's campaign in a ruby-red state (Kentucky), or the primary concern of races in a blue state (Virginia) didn't matter on Tuesday. Regardless of how well-known the cause was, abortion rights prevailed and enjoyed widespread support from a wide range of social groups.

For instance, in Ohio, Issue 1 was favored by the majority of voters in Ohio between the ages of 18 and 64 as well as by men, women, white, black, and Hispanic voters.

Proponents of reproductive rights pointed out that the topic helped candidates advance in other statewide contests on Tuesday, such as a Pennsylvania state Supreme Court contest where the topic of abortion rights was prominent. Tuesday night, a Democratic contender prevailed.

In the meantime, Youngkin was working to get Republicans into control of both chambers of the legislature in Virginia when he rallied a large group of Republican contenders in the legislative races to support his plan to outlaw abortions after 15 weeks. Aware of the GOP's struggles with abortion, strategists and political observers viewed the proposal—which contained exceptions for rape, incest, and the woman's health—as a test message for Republicans seeking a more nuanced reproductive rights policy and platform to run on in the wake of Roe v. Wade.

That also didn't work.

Because of this, Republicans will still be without a strong strategy to counter Democratic messaging by 2024 after the party battered them for their support of more restrictive

As a result, Republicans will still be without a strong strategy to counter Democratic messaging that has demonized them for supporting laws that would restrict abortion rights by 2024.

Republicans need to position themselves correctly with voters. However, they might not, according to Republican strategist Brandon Scholz of Wisconsin, where liberals this year gained a majority on the state Supreme Court as a result of their candidate making abortion rights a major platform of her campaign.

Scholz stated, "The Republican Party is just fairly split on this issue."

However, some Republicans asserted that Donald Trump was the one magic tool the GOP could use to get out of its current jam.

Naturally, Trump selected the justices on the Supreme Court who helped the court decide to reverse Roe. To his detriment among conservatives at times, he has, however, also shown himself to be more difficult to pin down on abortion rights than many other Republicans.

For instance, Trump has called state abortion bans that last six weeks "too harsh," and he did not attend a well-known conservative gathering in Iowa where Governor Kim Reynolds and six other Republican contenders for president signed a similar ban. Though he hasn't stated a firm stance on abortion laws, he has occasionally recommended that the matter be left up to the states and attributed the party's poor showing in the 2022 midterm elections to the hard-line positions of GOP candidates.

Even though some candidates, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, are running to his right on abortion, Trump is still far ahead in national polls of the GOP primary campaign and in Iowa, a crucial early voting state where conservative evangelical Christians are a significant voting bloc.

The growing losses for abortion rights could support the claim that Trump is the only Republican presidential candidate who is in a unique position to refute the notion that the party is losing a lot of ground on the issue.

Conant stated, "I believe this is probably the reason why Trump has really shied away from discussing abortion during his primary campaign." "On that one issue, he feels at ease allowing his opponents to overtake him."

Democrats have made it clear that, should Trump be nominated in 2024, they intend to use the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision against him.

To be clear, Roe v. Wade was terminated because of Donald Trump. And he'll go even farther if you vote for him," President Joe Biden tweeted in September.

The efforts to introduce ballot measures akin to the Ohio amendment in states like Arizona and Florida next year were also mentioned by proponents of reproductive rights. They claim that this could help Democratic candidates who are running alongside the ballot measures.

Many pledged to keep pressuring Republicans to pay for their continued support of abortion access restrictions.

Tamarra Wieder, the Kentucky state director of Planned Parenthood Alliance Advocates, a political arm of the national reproductive rights organization, warned Republicans directly, saying, "Even in states that are considered red, this is a winnable issue, across religious identities, political identities, because it impacts everybody's lives in very fundamental ways, and we are going to see this play out in elections to come — until we have access restored."

She declared, "You've lost on this issue." "And you had better get ready to lose more and more."